At the "PERC Technology Trends and Development Forum" held recently, some experts predicted that by 2020, the entire production capacity of mono PERC will reach 65 GW, and the shipments will account for 50% of the entire market. It is understood that in the current industrial production, the production line with high efficiency of single crystal PERC can reach more than 21.5%, and single crystal PERC has become the most attractive technical solution.
Industry insiders told reporters that at present, cost reduction through scale effects is close to the "floor", and continuous technological innovation has become the most effective means of photovoltaics to achieve affordable Internet access. In addition, with the drive of the national high-efficiency "leader" project and the demand for high-power modules in the downstream market, the market share of single crystal will gradually expand.
Monocrystalline silicon shows a strong comeback
In the current global solar power generation market, crystalline silicon power generation occupies more than 90% of the market. At the end of 2014, polycrystalline products accounted for 70% of the global crystalline silicon products. However, in recent years, due to the hot monocrystalline silicon market in developed countries such as the United States, Japan, and Germany, as well as the strong demand in the domestic downstream market, the sales of domestic monocrystalline silicon manufacturers have surged.
The reporter noticed that as early as the second half of 2014, SolarCity spent US$350 million to acquire Cylon Power, whose main product is high-efficiency N-type monocrystalline cells, to try the monocrystalline silicon route; at the beginning of 2015, the world's largest monocrystalline silicon photovoltaic Product manufacturer LONGi integrated LONGi Solar and began to formally set foot in the manufacture and sales of monocrystalline silicon module products, showing a rapid development momentum in the first year of entering the market.
It is worth mentioning that at the beginning of last year, LEO Solar signed a strategic agreement with six photovoltaic power station developers. According to the agreement, in the next 3 years, LONGi Solar and its parent company LONGi will supply CMNE New Energy. No less than 4.3 GW of monocrystalline modules, no less than 3 GW of monocrystalline silicon wafers/cells to Linyang Energy, no less than 1.8 GW of monocrystalline modules to China Merchants New Energy, no less than 1.8 GW of monocrystalline modules to Shandong Tianen For 1.5GW monocrystalline modules, supply no less than 1GW monocrystalline modules to CMEC Wuxi and Tianhong Sunshine respectively. In addition, the mass production scale and conversion efficiency of PERC monocrystalline cells and modules of LEO Solar have reached the forefront of the world.
In 2016, LONGi achieved outstanding results. According to the company's performance forecast, LONGi's sales revenue exceeded 10 billion yuan, an increase of about 100% throughout the year, and its net profit reached 1.4-1.6 billion yuan, becoming one of the companies with the best operating conditions in the photovoltaic industry.
In addition, Zhonghuan Co., Ltd. stated in its 2016 annual report that in 2016, the client's demand for monocrystalline products continued to rise, and the market's effective capacity supply was insufficient. The monocrystalline silicon wafers produced by Zhonghuan Co., Ltd. were trusted by customers and continued to be in short supply. In fact, last year, the sales of all domestic monocrystalline enterprises were basically very hot.
According to the reporter's understanding, the domestic single crystal market share was about 5% in 2014, and by the end of 2015, this figure exceeded 15%. In 2016, the domestic single crystal market share even increased to 27%. In the first half of 2017, monocrystalline silicon wafers in the photovoltaic market continued the trend of hot demand in 2016. In the second half of the year, the demand for high-efficiency products will continue to increase, and the market share of monocrystalline products will continue to grow.
It should be pointed out that in 2006, in the field of crystalline silicon products, in fact, single crystal and polycrystalline were equally divided. From this, it is not difficult to see that at present, monocrystalline silicon is showing a strong return trend.
Cost reduction and efficiency increase is a realistic need
For quite a long time in the past, polysilicon has been "dominated" in the crystalline silicon market, and the high production cost of monocrystalline silicon is an important reason.
Wang Shijiang, deputy secretary-general of China Photovoltaic Industry Association, said that the price of monocrystalline products has risen since 2015. The key is to drive down costs through technological breakthroughs. It is reflected in two aspects. The first monocrystalline silicon wafer has completed the process from mortar wire to diamond wire. The transformation of cutting has improved the cutting efficiency by more than 50%. The second is the continuous crystal pulling process, which improves the productivity of single crystal silicon rods, improves the output and reduces the cost.
Costs are lower, and prices naturally drop. Since 2016, the cost of single crystal has dropped rapidly, and the cost advantage of single crystal has gradually become prominent. In the future, the price difference between single and polycrystalline modules will be reduced to 0.01~0.02 US dollars / watt, and the cost performance will gradually become prominent. It is understood that the current monocrystalline enterprises represented by LONGi have reduced the cost of pulling crystals to 40~50 yuan/kg, that is, only 1.9~2.3 cents/watt per watt. The advantage is still not obvious. With the sharp drop in the price of monocrystalline products, monocrystalline products gradually have the strength to compete with polycrystalline products.
The above-mentioned industry insiders told reporters that technological progress determines the future of the photovoltaic industry. Photovoltaic companies need to rely on technology to improve the conversion efficiency of products through the improvement of technology research and development strength. Only if the two efficiency go hand in hand, can we promote the realization of grid parity and de-subsidy of photovoltaics.
Compared with polycrystalline, what are the advantages of single crystal? According to the reporter's understanding, at the level of power station operation, monocrystalline can save 5% of land rent and 6% of operation and maintenance costs than polycrystalline energy, and the power generation per watt of monocrystalline is at least 3% higher than that of polycrystalline energy, then at 25% capital Under the financing structure of the proportion and 15-year loan period, the internal rate of return of capital invested in monocrystalline power plants in central my country will be at least 2.78% higher than that of investment in polycrystalline power plants.
In addition, a group of Qinghai Golmud 20 MW photovoltaic power station operating data concluded that: under normal circumstances (not affected by power restrictions), the power generation of 10 MW monocrystalline silicon photovoltaic array from 2013 to 2015 is higher than that of 10 MW polycrystalline silicon. The power generation of the photovoltaic square array increases by 782,000 kWh, and the power generation of monocrystalline silicon is 4.58% higher than that of crystalline silicon. This is a real benefit for customers.
Obviously, under the current situation of the gradual reduction of photovoltaic subsidies, more project developers will pay attention to the control of LCOE in the future, and monocrystalline silicon products with high conversion efficiency will gradually be recognized by more people.
Distributed photovoltaics help the development of monocrystalline silicon
It is particularly worth mentioning that since the launch of the "Top Runner" program in 2015, different lower efficiency limits have been established for mono and multi-crystalline components, of which 17% for mono-crystalline modules and 16.5% for multi-crystalline modules. After a year of testing, about 20% of polycrystalline products meet the standards of the "Top Runner" program, while almost 100% of monocrystalline modules meet the standards, which directly promotes the rapid development of my country's monocrystalline silicon market.
It is understood that in 2016, under the impetus of my country's "Leader" base, mono-crystalline modules ran wildly, and achieved a surprising achievement of three times the overall market share of mono-crystalline. The first Datong "Leader" base accounted for more than 60% of single crystals.
The reporter noticed that the "2017-2020 New Construction Scale Plan for Photovoltaic Power Stations" recently released by the National Energy Administration proposed that 8 million kilowatts of front-runner base projects will be arranged each year from 2017 to 2020. Obviously, the country will vigorously develop the "Top Runner" program in the next few years.
According to data released by the National Energy Administration, in the first half of 2017, the country added 7.11 million kilowatts of distributed photovoltaics, a year-on-year increase of 2.9 times. The development of the installed capacity of distributed photovoltaic power generation continues to accelerate, and the development of distributed photovoltaics will further accelerate under the circumstance that photovoltaic subsidies are gradually reduced.
Ding Wenlei, founder of Hangyu Energy, said that in distributed power generation, especially for rooftop power stations, the use of single crystals can obtain more power installed capacity on a limited roof area. "Roof resources are more precious." The advantage of distributed distribution lies in local consumption. Moreover, from Germany and Japan's enthusiasm for single crystals, we can see the trend of demand for the entire distributed single crystals.
Obviously, distributed is more concerned with conversion efficiency. According to the "Thirteenth Five-Year Plan" for Electric Power Development, during the "Thirteenth Five-Year Plan" period, the installed capacity of distributed photovoltaics should reach more than 60 million kilowatts.
To sum up, it is not difficult to judge that the "leader" and distributed photovoltaics will strongly promote the development of the monocrystalline silicon industry in the next few years.
According to the estimates of relevant institutions, with the continuous development of the photovoltaic market and the active promotion of the "Top Runner" plan, high-efficiency cells will become the market leader, and the market share of monocrystalline silicon cells will gradually increase, and it is expected to reach 48% by 2025. Among them, the market share of N-type monocrystalline silicon cells will increase from 3.5% in 2016 to 30% in 2025.